McCain leads Democrat Barack Obama by 50%-46%

[secret-steve-crumbles]

This is going to be an interesting election.

WASHINGTON — The Republican National Convention has given John McCain and his party a significant boost, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken over the weekend shows, as running mate Sarah Palin helps close an "enthusiasm gap" that has dogged the GOP all year.

McCain leads Democrat Barack Obama by 50%-46% among registered voters, the Republican's biggest advantage since January and a turnaround from the USA TODAY poll taken just before the convention opened in St. Paul. Then, he lagged by 7 percentage points.

The convention bounce has helped not only McCain but also attitudes toward Republican congressional candidates and the GOP in general.

"The Republicans had a very successful convention and, at least initially, the selection of Sarah Palin has made a big difference," says political scientist Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia. "He's in a far better position than his people imagined he would be in at this point."

However, in an analysis of the impact of political conventions since 1960, Sabato concluded that post-convention polls signal the election's outcome only about half the time. "You could flip a coin and be about as predictive," he says. "It is really surprising how quickly convention memories fade."

HAhahaha, wait wait, so let me get this straight. Two people are running, and there's a 50% chance one of them will win? Damn, that guy is genius.

Full Article (http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-09-07-poll_N.htm).

[tokenuser]

Depends where you are getting your numbers from.

The CNN Electoral Map (http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/06/10/map.explainer/index.html#cnnSTCOther1) begs to differ ... as does Zogby (http://www.zogby.com/50state/) (but I suspect that is just because they haven't updated their map yet with their latest results (http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1548)).

[secret-steve-crumbles]

Depends where you are getting your numbers from.

The CNN Electoral Map (http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/06/10/map.explainer/index.html#cnnSTCOther1) begs to differ ... as does Zogby (http://www.zogby.com/50state/) (but I suspect that is just because they haven't updated their map yet with their latest results (http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1548)).This zogby says McCain leads too: http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1548

[phatlip12]

Depends where you are getting your numbers from.

The CNN Electoral Map (http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/06/10/map.explainer/index.html#cnnSTCOther1) begs to differ ... as does Zogby (http://www.zogby.com/50state/) (but I suspect that is just because they haven't updated their map yet with their latest results (http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1548)).

The CNN map was last updated in June...

[tokenuser]

This zogby says McCain leads too: http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1548Did you even realise that I said that? Although the Zogby numbers show the gap to be closer than the Gallup results.

[secret-steve-crumbles]

Did you even realise that I said that? Although the Zogby numbers show the gap to be closer than the Gallup results.Ah, no, I didn't notice your "latest results" went to where I was.

[bigshotprof]

No poll with a distance of fewer than five points means anything.

Oh, and Larry Sabato IS a genius.

[yssman]

Real Clear Politics (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html) has an interesting look at all the polls, and on average, they have McCain ahead by only 3%. That is hardly enough of a lead to be worth a damn, and for that matter, being that it is a national poll, it doesn't take into consideration the big spoil-sport for any poll:

The Electoral College.

...This will be a state-by-state race (something that Obama realized early on), and to that end, while it may be close, Obama will likely regain a slight edge as the memory of the GOP convention begins to fade. Much of this will be decided between the debates and some of the rhetoric the candidates use. Nevertheless, its going to be two awesome months in battleground states like Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Wisconsin, and right here where I am... Michigan.

[secret-steve-crumbles]

That is hardly enough of a lead to be worth a damn, and for that matter, being that it is a national poll, it doesn't take into consideration the big spoil-sport for any poll:

The Electoral College.
Right, because they don't know about the electoral College...

Statistically, whoever is ahead at the end of the conventions, even if by a small amount, wins.

I think the last person who that wasn't true for was Regan. I think he was down by some insane amount, like 15 points at the end of the conventions.

[tokenuser]

CNN updated their maps since the post this morning.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/06/10/electoral.map/index.html

Obama is still in the lead - but only because he looks likely to carry the states with the larger number of electoral college votes.

With things being essentially a tie on the popular vote front, it might be another case where the popular vote does not match the way it plays in the electoral college distribution.

[secret-steve-crumbles]

CNN updated their maps since the post this morning.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/06/10/electoral.map/index.html

Obama is still in the lead - but only because he looks likely to carry the states with the larger number of electoral college votes.

With things being essentially a tie on the popular vote front, it might be another case where the popular vote does not match the way it plays in the electoral college distribution.
Damn, he's getting fucking owned in the electoral votes.

Politico is saying the same as it always has. Obama up by 8: http://www.politico.com/convention/swingstate.html

What's the purpose of the electoral votes? Is it really so bad to just count all the fucking votes and total them? That way California might not be such a huge thorn in the Republican side.

[tokenuser]

Damn, he's getting fucking owned in the electoral votes.

Politico is saying the same as it always has. Obama up by 8: http://www.politico.com/convention/swingstate.html

What's the purpose of the electoral votes? Is it really so bad to just count all the fucking votes and total them? That way California might not be such a huge thorn in the Republican side.Love it or hate it, its what screwed over Gore/Lieberman in '00 - so it goes both ways.

The Electoral College is the stupidester system of voting allocation in the world (after Zimbabwe).

[masherscf]

Love it or hate it, its what screwed over Gore/Lieberman in '00 - so it goes both ways.

The Electoral College is the stupidester system of voting allocation in the world (after Zimbabwe).

The electoral college was originally intended to encourage candidates to campaign in every state. It was thought that a candidate could easily win a popular vote by campaigning only in populated places like Boston, New York and Philadelphia. The adoption of an electoral college was a compromise so that less populated southern states weren't completely disenfranchised. Ironically, it's has the opposite effect in modern times.

Of course, the electoral college was designed for times when only white male landowners could vote. The entire original design of the federal government was designed to be resistant to popular opinion.

[skyz]

Love it or hate it, its what screwed over Gore/Lieberman in '00 - so it goes both ways.

The Electoral College is the stupidester system of voting allocation in the world (after Zimbabwe).

that and repubs 'winner take all' delegates in a state

and the dems 'we'll divvy up by %'

[murphy1d]

I was wondering where everyone was. The "General" thread hasn't had a post since 4:00 this afternoon (EST). You were all talkin politics.

Well, I like Ike.

[enendar]

I find it hard to believe these polls. I'm from Green Bay, Wisconsin which supposedly might be a battle ground this year despite us voting for both Kerry and Gore. (And my county voted Bush both times) I've only met a handful of people who say they will vote for McCain, and thats not only because I'm a college kid. But many of my friends said their Republican parents are going to vote Obama and that many of their friends are as well. I see Obama stuff randomly all over but I have yet to ever see a McCain anything... ever. Wherever his 50%+ supporters are, I don't see em.

[tokenuser]

I was wondering where everyone was. The "General" thread hasn't had a post since 4:00 this afternoon (EST). You were all talkin politics.

Well, I like Ike.Haitiians and Cubans aren't that impressed though.

[yssman]

I find it hard to believe these polls. I'm from Green Bay, Wisconsin which supposedly might be a battle ground this year despite us voting for both Kerry and Gore.... But many of my friends said their Republican parents are going to vote Obama and that many of their friends are as well....

Its the same across the lake here in Michigan. McCain stands a chance of winning only here on the west side of the state, maybe in the UP, but it will be a cold day in hell if he can win over union and minority votes in Detroit. Considering that a large number of votes come from there, that will decide it all. There are too many Republicans (like me) who are mad as hell right now at the party that we'll all be voting for Obama in the fall... Too many middle-class people have been alienated by Bush and his policies, and consequently, are going elsewhere for solutions.

The Real Clear Politics Average (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html#polls) was changed again today as all of the updated polls came out, McCain only having a statistical advantage of less than 3%. If we remove the outlier of the USA Today/Gallup poll (at a 10% lead), McCain's lead would be down to roughly 2.5%, well within any margin of error, and otherwise too close to call. While the jump up by the McCain campaign was to be expected, I continue to be under the assumption that it won't last long if Obama continues to hammer on issues.