Polls: can they be trusted?

[comhcinc]

So I have a question. Can we trust polling data?

It seems to me that it doesn't work any more.

Am I right in thinking that most polls are based off of telephone calls to "likely voters". How can this be very accurate any more? I can not think of any one I know that still has a "home telephone". Everyone I know has a cell phone as their primary phone. Cell phones with unpublished numbers.

When I had a land line I was polled many times. I have never been polled on my cell phone.

How many "likely voters" are not being polled?

Thoughts?

[xibalba]

They probably are not very accurate. If I get a call asking to be polled or whatever I just hang up. I wouldn't doubt them counting that as choice for whoever they support.

[tokenuser]

You are going to get a skewed demographic - but it should still be fairly representative.

Ditto on online polls where you "opt in".

With phone calls, I now ask if its a political poll upfront - and say I am ineligible to vote. Saves wasting everyones time.

[yssman]

It depends. You can question sample sizes, who is being questioned, how questions are being asked, and for that matter... If people are lying over the phone to not sound like a racist or a sexist with either of their votes.

They're an interesting way to see the election in context, but you've got to go sate-by-state to get any kind of view as to how the election will go.

[comhcinc]

let give you an example as to when i think these polls hurt.

i live in alabama, we have 9 electoral votes and we are an all or nothing state.

we are considered a red state that is never in play. that is what all the polls say. yet if you look at the actually numbers of who people vote for in this state it is always very close. couple thousands votes could change where those 9 votes go, yet no one really pays any notice.

if obama really pushed this state then he could win it. i am sure it is like that for many other of these so called "locked in" states.

[bigshotprof]

Polls are statistical descriptions. They accurately describe what they are counting at the moment they are counting. The further from the point of data collection they get the less reliable is their data. The standard deviation or range of error is kind of misleading. A 3-5% range of error indicates a much more flawed method than it suggests. A tight statistical survey, say, for an academic study would have a range of error of .05%. That poll that says Apple 45% Orange 42% has a range of errors on BOTH numbers of say 3%. That means the result could be 48-39 or a dead heat.

Basically, if your guy is ahead, the poll is dead on accurate. Take heart. If not, ignore it; it's garbage.

[quix]

They're worth watching as they can show large trends, but they're not that trustworthy given that there are multiple variables which can shift the results such as forcing people to choose Obama or McCain and saying "If the election was today who would you vote for?" vs. "Who do you support?"

[rabidbadger]

I believe the polls are useless this time around.
Too many variables this time around. Too many cell phones with youth, who Obama excited early on, before Iowa when African Americans jumped on board with a truly viable black candidate voted highly by whites in the midwest.

And I live in a Very racially mixed lower middle class neighborhood. NO SUCH thing as a human, of any age, without a cell Phone. Most of us have a land line just for our security systems. That's the only reason I had one. Never answered it, Though, last house with just a landline, I always answered polls. Even when they were "Push Polls" just so I could fug with them. haha.

Also, the recent financial debacle has gotten women to abandon mc cain, cause women are the "bread and butter" voters of the family. They pay more attention to money issues as it reflects on their families than men do.

The "REAL" problem with polls, though, is that they are reported ad nauseum. "Casual" voters see someone ahead, think they are numbers based on folks who have been paying attention, and throw their vote to the winner, cause they have been "vetted" by "those folks like me who know..."

[speed]

With phone calls, I now ask if its a political poll upfront - and say I am ineligible to vote. Saves wasting everyones time.

Just out of curiosity, why are you ineligible to vote? Or are you just bulshitting to avoid having to go through a poll.

[mikec]

Just out of curiosity, why are you ineligible to vote? Or are you just bulshitting to avoid having to go through a poll.

Token is an import. Not sure of his actual status other then he seems to be here legally.

He seems like an OK guy, maybe we should let him stay if he wants.....

[bigshotprof]

Polls are like crossing guards. They will do what they are intended to do, but very little else.

[tokenuser]

Just out of curiosity, why are you ineligible to vote? Or are you just bulshitting to avoid having to go through a poll.I am a "Legal Resident Alien with Advanced Parole" ... basically, I am an Australian citizen, living and working in the US, who has satisfied all the requirements for a greencard, but is waiting in a queue for one to become availalbe (they get released in batches each October - and once the annual allocation has run out, you need to wait until the following year).

[bigshotprof]

I am a "Legal Resident Alien with Advanced Parole" ... basically, I am an Australian citizen, living and working in the US, who has satisfied all the requirements for a greencard, but is waiting in a queue for one to become availalbe (they get released in batches each October - and once the annual allocation has run out, you need to wait until the following year).

People with green cards can vote?