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Old 02-22-2013, 01:21 PM
estebanrey
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Default Small Risk, HUGE Reward *IMPROVED*

As you may know the second trick in episode 60 has been calculated to be less than a 50% success rate. Most people are making it 48.3%, I make it 49.3% but that doesn't matter the point is over time you will lose out.

So here is my alternative presentation that will give you an almost 2 to 1 profit over the long term.

Firstly, you wanna make sure you do this on 2 people. That is very important and I think it works better for other reasons, you are getting them to pick 2 numbers so they get to pick one each and feel more like a team and they may subconsciously think "2 brains are better than 1" making them more likely to play. Finally if one person agrees, the chances are the second will say OK too due to well-known peer pressure and following of a lead.

That out of the way here's how you present it to your 'victims'. The rules are exactly the same as in the Scam School video, a shuffled deck of cards and you get them to pick 2 values (1 each) and you win if they are next to each other in the deck.

This time though, after you've explained the rules you say....

"OK, if those two numbers are anywhere in the deck next to each other, both of you each have to get me a beer" [make sure you use the word 'each' so you can hold it to them later if you do win.]"

Next you say...

"But if either of you two guys win I'll buy the person who's number appears first a beer. So, that's fair, we're all in danger of having to buy 1 drink if we lose"

Hopefully at that point they'll then agree to the challenge, you start going through and let's say Bob said 2 and Jim said Jack, you'll either hit a 2 or a Jack first and as soon as you do, before revealing the next card you make a big deal over it. Let's say it's a 2 you get to first, you stop and say...

"Hey Bob you've done the first part, your card was first so I'm gonna have to buy you a beer if this next card isn't a Jack and none of the other 2's have Jacks next to them in the pack"

You then reveal the next card, if it is a Jack you celebrate, look amazing and remind the guys they both owe you a beer. If it isn't you get Bob more excited by saying "Damn, looks like you might win this" and carry on look for Jack/2 combinations, if there aren't any you lose so congratulate 'Bob' and buy him a beer.

When written down like this you can probably see what's going on here, basically if you win then you get 2 beers, but if you lose you only have to buy 1 meaning that over time (seeing as it is nearly 50/50) you will get far more beer than you have to buy.

The trick is in the wording (and I'm sure you can improve on it), you have to obfuscate the reward which is 2 to 1 in your favour and concentrate on the risk, seeing each person is risking buying 1 beer which is the same for all three of you giving an illusion of fairness.

Another reason I think this will work is you are also tapping into to people’s inherent selfishness. People will tend to think more about what THEY personally stand to lose or gain and not the opponent. For the ‘marks’ personally their risk is always 1 beer and their reward is 1 beer. Add in the fact most people will think a matching pair is fairly unlikely and it increases their sense of getting something for nothing.

Another way you could word it would be to say something like “If you think about it you guys have the odds in your favour, not only is it unlikely the two cards will be together somewhere in the pack (they don’t know it’s actually nearly evens), but I either have to buy a drink for one of you two or I get beer myself, but for you guys you will either get a drink, have to buy one or you get and buy nothing if you guys win but your card isn’t first, so in 2 out of the 3 scanrios you won’t lose (this of course is rubbish but will fool any non-statistician drunk) .

So what do you think?

Last edited by estebanrey : 02-22-2013 at 03:47 PM.
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